Lancer

"How They Faked Global Warming" [REOPENED: Read post 354]

3,566 posts in this topic

I've been hearing a lot of 'The earth is not warming up, so we shouldn't bother about emissions' talk.

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Thanks for the number crunching, N35t0r. 'preciated. :b:

 

It's a break from trying to figure out the notes on an electricity lab I did nine weeks ago and have to hand in tomorrow. Damn stuff doesn't make sense.

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Mars is also much smaller... There is very little CO2 (proportionally) in earth's atmosphere, though...

 

 

OK, wiki says that ~95% (mol/mol) of the 25 teratonnes of mars' atmosphere is CO2, which amounts to 25Ttn* (0.9532 mol co2/mol atm) * (44.01 g/mol co2) / (43.34 g/mol atm) = 24.20 Ttn (2.42x1016 Kg)

 

Earth, otoh, is easier. Wiki claims 3.16×1015 kg

 

So, yes, by about an order of magnitude.

 

I didn't bother figuring out the numbers so precisely. I looked at the mass of the atmospheres of the two planets, and the percentage of atmosphere comprised of CO2 for each. Then did some estimation.

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I've been hearing a lot of 'The earth is not warming up, so we shouldn't bother about emissions' talk.

 

exactly. This is prime time 'Fox News' led, and has permiated all of the 'right-wing' media outlets and some middle of the road ones too, and is ultimately coming from the Big Oil producers that want maximum profits now, and don't give a damn about the future. This is the core of the climate change denial debate. If you do some deep digging you will find it all comes back here, i've given examples throughout this thread.

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Right! ...and that's why when someone says, "you know, I think its getting cooler" they get pounced on by political extremists who accuse them of watching "FOX".

 

Its a tough life. :sadnod:

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Right! ...and that's why when someone says, "you know, I think its getting cooler" they get pounced on by political extremists who accuse them of watching "FOX".

 

Its a tough life. :sadnod:

 

:slap::cmn::otf::hammer:

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Yeah, thanks Geo, its nice to know the injustice effects my friends. :)

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This is my view on politics Geo. Pretty much everyone is an extremist compared. This is from page 7 or 8ish.

 

 

Your political views aren't important to me Jack, hell my political views aren't important to me either. The whole political thing isn't. I'm 51 years old and all the political stuff I felt strongly about through the years never changed a thing. Lets give it a rest due to complete indifference on my part, shall we? :)

 

More important to me is handing 5 pesos to some street kid, and a lot more real. Lets talk about small stuff we can change. The big stuff is too easy. We can't change anything so focusing on it is just a vanity it seems to me, a cop out of a sort.

 

I believe unions are good but its not a political belief anymore, its just what I think.

 

Even the global warming is something about which I can do something. I can choose a smaller car, or to combine trips or even better take a motorcycle. If its real...its political so I don't trust it. Even the scientists have sold themselves to the politicians on this one. Its hard to know what to believe.

Edited by Lancer

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When it gets really hot its a sure sign of global cooling...

 

http://news.yahoo.com/stifling-heat-forecast-half-u-145013617.html

 

 

Stifling heat forecast for half the U.S.

By Karin Matz | Reuters – 1 hr 16 mins ago...

.

CHICAGO (Reuters) -Excessive heat was forecast to blanket half of the continental United States on Tuesday.

 

The National Weather Service issued heat warnings or advisories for 24 states stretching from parts of Texas and Oklahoma to the plains, the Mississippi Valley and the east coast.

 

"It's going to stay hot in the central to southern plain states," said Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for the weather service.

 

The heat on the east coast is not expected to be as intense.

 

"For the most part it's a one day heat wave," Vaccaro said.

 

But there was no reprieve from the heat in sight for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Yesterday was the 13th consecutive day temperatures hovered at or above 100 degrees, according to the weather service. And the heat was expected to continue through next weekend.

 

Air quality alerts were also in effect on the east coast from Virginia to New Jersey.

 

In addition to the sweltering heat, scattered thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds and hail were in the forecast from southern Nebraska to northern Kansas to parts of the mid-Atlantic from Southern Virginia to North Carolina.

 

This was the same system that hit the Chicago area yesterday leaving a record 868,000 customers without power.

 

As of 8 a.m. local time 361,000 customers were still without power Tuesday morning, according to ComEd, the utility company servicing the area.

 

"We have restored power to approximately 500,000 customers so far," said Tony Hernandez, ComEd spokesman.

 

"We have asked for support from neighboring utilities," Hernandez said, who also said 900 crews are working around the clock to restore power.

 

Crews from Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan were already in the area. And crews from Tennessee, Alabama and Pennsylvania were on the way.

 

(Editing by Greg McCune)

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is ultimately coming from the Big Oil producers that want maximum profits now, and don't give a damn about the future.

 

Sounds like an ignorant statement.

 

1. Indeed, most businesses have begun empathizing short-term profits so as to satisfy shareholders, not really a good thing from even my point of view, but *every* industry does it, so it's not too shocking :).

2. Oil and Gas profit per dollar invested is something on this proportion (according to a chart that was published in the WSJ around 2005) 1:14 whereas microsoft earned 1:35, and most other industries earn more profit than oil and gas industries (but less than microsoft). (Doing a little research it appears that in 2008 the API (industry org) "says its members earn about 8.3 cents per dollar invested, compared to 18.4 cents for pharmaceutical manufacturers and 19.1 cents for beverage and tobacco producers."

The oil and gas industry re-invests a significant amount of its profits. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/PainAtThePump/story?id=4749343&page=1 (from ABC, not exactly a partisan friend of oil and gas companies)

 

3. investment of profits into better technologies for tapping oil has resulted in the massive expansion of hydraulic fracturing efforts across the US, deep water drilling like Deepwater Horizon, that simply wasn't possible 40 years ago, Antarctic explorations, oil shales, synthetic oils, biofuels, and more.

 

4. "Big Oil" is the major investor into new technologies that would extend the time that oil is available. It hurts them when reserves go down for their company- stock prices suffer. The Oil companies you don't like and should be worried about are the national oil companies that own over 85% of all reserves !!!! "Big Oil" only has about 15% of all reserves... not so big after all- they can't even control the market prices for oil/gas fluctuations. They have all the technology and invest and the other national oil companies either steal their tech or borrow their tech or buy their tech and then copy it.

 

You should be thankful for Big Oil having a profit motive and being on a stock market where their amounts of reserves are checked, or else we'd have run out of oil/gas long ago due to flooding out oil reservoirs due to saltwater flushes or gas flaring. The soviets were notorious for that stuff. (*Note: my argument about incompetent saltwater flushes is better than the gas flaring argument- see Nigeria for example, but as gas becomes more financially profitable to not flare, there is more incentive to recover it- and that has been ongoing). [Note 2-gas has been flared in the past because less well capitalized oil drillers could afford to drill the oil, but not to recover the gas. However, oil can be beneath a 'gas cap' that gets punctured... so the gas may leak while the oil company only intends to actually get the oil. It's not like they're polluting for the sake of destroying the environment and to anger Captain Planet.]

 

Whereas Europe and Asia might be able to function with ultra-high priced gas due to high density that justifies a good public transportation system, the US' culture of suburbs and its infrastructure is not amenable to a change from personal cars to public transportation. While it can be done, the US economy would likely be shattered with even more debt than we see today...

 

 

5) Just wondering, why should an oil company practice anything other than corporate social responsibility beyond not bribing another country or intentionally polluting, or even negligently polluting where law does not require it. Under what legal theory does it make sense to require them to invest in renewable energy? They're not in the business of renewable energy. If their shareholders decide its profitable, they might do that, but that's not what all their engineers and infrastructure is invested for. You don't force McDonalds to raise horses for meat instead of cows to reduce methane production... McDonalds' isn't in the horsemeat business, so too are oil companies not in the renewables business. I suppose if you're a communist or someone interested in a highly command-control economy that might look like it makes sense; but command and control economies are almost always less efficient than market forces (witness: soviet economy).

Edited by DarkCloud

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Nice to see you posting DC!

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Question to all:

 

Is it worth moving all the Aussie policy stuff out into its own thread and leave this one to the science of climate change?

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As for me, do whatever makes you happy. :) Talk about whatever in this thread, or make another. :dunno:

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Sounds like an ignorant statement.

 

......

4. "Big Oil" is the major investor into new technologies that would extend the time that oil is available. It hurts them when reserves go down for their company- stock prices suffer. The Oil companies you don't like and should be worried about are the national oil companies that own over 85% of all reserves !!!! "Big Oil" only has about 15% of all reserves... not so big after all- they can't even control the market prices for oil/gas fluctuations. They have all the technology and invest and the other national oil companies either steal their tech or borrow their tech or buy their tech and then copy it.

............

 

Lots of good stuff i may come back to later DC :b: (time constraints today). I'll just respond to that particular bit with this:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum

 

Poor suffering oil companies, bless them, maybe we should protect them like we did the banking sector? ;)

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maybe we should protect them like we did the banking sector? ;)

 

Or try to bring them down like you Poms are trying to do to Murdoch right now. ;)

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Let's tap their stocks instead of their phones. :D

 

Is it worth moving all the Aussie policy stuff out into its own thread and leave this one to the science of climate change?

 

Since its mostly a conversation between you and PiMan, that sounds like a good idea.

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Aussie carbon tax debate posts moved to new thread.

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Hypothesis on the link between length of solar activity, CO2 and solar cycles:

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/13/archibald-climate-forecast-to-2050/

 

A very interesting read, as it shows a very observable relationship between the sun and the effect on the climate. In fact, from his paper it appears that the relationship is a lot stronger than the AGW relationship.

 

Of course, you warmies will love the fact and discard reading it because in the past he had links to oil and gas exploration companies. ;)

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Again the global warming climate deniers refuse to see that the coming trough in solar magnetism, even greater than the current trough in solar magnetism, will bring upon the land enough ice to fill all the pink frothy drinks in the Bahamas and Hawaii combined, including parts of Jamaica!! :scared: That's a lot!

 

Interestring if CO2 is warming the summers while lack of solar magnetism is cooling the winters.

Edited by Lancer

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Hypothesis on the link between length of solar activity, CO2 and solar cycles:

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/13/archibald-climate-forecast-to-2050/

 

A very interesting read, as it shows a very observable relationship between the sun and the effect on the climate. In fact, from his paper it appears that the relationship is a lot stronger than the AGW relationship.

 

Of course, you warmies will love the fact and discard reading it because in the past he had links to oil and gas exploration companies. ;)

 

Well it sounds very sciency :b: my problem with it(apart from the issue of possible bias you've already mentioned) is the medium used to tell the story - look at that website!! look at all the books it advertises!! It's a little like asking Rupert Murdoch what he thinks of the BBC to come to a conclusion about the BBC ;)

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Yeah I know he's published that blog on that site (which yeah is a coolie site), but a quick Google yielded his work in various journals and other sites. So he's not afraid to take his theory across the board.

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Lots of good stuff i may come back to later DC :b: (time constraints today). I'll just respond to that particular bit with this:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum

 

Poor suffering oil companies, bless them, maybe we should protect them like we did the banking sector? ;)

 

Price doesn't necessarily mean anything. Profit margins are what matter. And fluctuations in oil prices hurt everyone. If a petroleum company knows that oil will be at 60/barrel for 2 years, they can invest in developing technology and new fields with that assumption. If they invest assuming 60/barrel and it falls to 30/barrel, then they lose massive amounts of money because the fields they developed were only viable at 60/barrel.

 

(Also notable, although this may be addressing something entirely different: Milk, a renewable resource, has almost always been cheaper than a gallon of gas at the local fill-up station. [Why? Transportation costs play some role, but still it's something to think about--our renewable Milk has traditionally been more expensive than our gas, and it probably still is even with gas at $3.50/gallon. It's sort of impressive that gas prices have been able to stay as low as they have, given that everyone realizes that we will run out of oil some day.)

 

Admittedly if oil is above 60/barrel and it stays there and the companies didn't invest thinking oil was at 80/barrel, then the companies are okay. But remember, around 1998-2000, oil's price dropped impressively and unexpectedly. That caused huge problems. Research programs at some oil companies were abandoned and many were laid off. The small guys in the Texas oil fields also suffered immensely. I know people who worked in oil towns--the downturn was devastating with drillers going out of business left and right.

 

And what's worse-- if they've already drilled the uneconomic well, they either have to eat the losses (selling it on the market, driving prices down more), or they can only leave it idle for about a year--if it's idle for more than a year, they have to plug the well (which costs money), because environmentalists won't let them leave it open otherwise... landowners who want the oil company to keep drilling also oppose the idling of a well, but oil companies usually can deal with them by contracting for delay rentals, and the implied covenant to market only applies if the well is an economically productive well.

 

I'll agree with you though if you're complaining about market speculators driving up the price without regard to market forces. I am very suspicious about debt and odd financial instruments. As you may be aware, I defend producers of things (thus the Wendell Willkie quote in my signature at Apolyton); I'm not going to pick a fight with you if your gripes are about bankers, investors, speculators, etc. because I suspect them since they moreso than anyone produce the least for the benefit they give (loans created by accruing investments are a benefit...but I'm still suspicious of them) :) It's an odd society that rewards the dilettante investor (rather than the angel investor) more than the producer.

 

--

I understand about lack of time- I really shouldn't be posting here at this time myself :fear:

Edited by DarkCloud

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My issues with 'Big Oil'(and when i use that word i include all large scale oil production, private/nationalized etc) is that behind the carefully crafted modern PR exterior they are still at root responsible for most of the worlds impending environmental problems, be it CO2 and global warming(or cooling if you go that way) and sea acidification. They are the driving power behind the agri petro-chemical companies that have added lots of toxicity into the natural environment(so much that all living things born on the planet today will carry some of that toxicity within them, from baby polar bears in the Artic, to marine mammals to your kids, and many of these chemical compounds are one of the base causes of cancers etc). Add the plastics industry into the mix, and from the floating island of plasitc in the pacific to just about any local beach you might care to visit these days full of non-biodegradable plastic, derived from the Big Oil companies waste/spare product; we are litterally drowning in toxic waste, from a litteral sense to a genetic one.

 

To add insult to injury, they as an industry, are one of the richest industrial blocks in the world(taken as a whole) and while they could be using their vast wealth to arrive at solutions to the problems of today, they prefer to protect share holders and CEO's bonus pay over the real important and grown up responsible things they could be doing. And don't even get me started on how for years they have slowed down progress on 'green' technologies. They just don't care about anything other than profit now, which is quite reminiscent of our financial institutions, and look at where that got them(well ok they did get a huge slab of free money, that we will all have to pay back, and our childrens children will probably be doing so too).

 

Bottom line is they(as an industry) are just as corrupt and self-serving as the financial markets. The same thought processes, the same type of people running it, the same pattern of destruction and eventual failure(which might include the demise of our species). Great guys ;)

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