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Thread: Philippines and US prepare for war with China

  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancer View Post
    Actually the laws need to be changed here and US forces permanently stationed.
    It's not a mere law but part of the Constitution here. So it'll be very difficult to alter.

    No doubt the U.S. could whump the Chinese in a conventional war, but they have the world's most advanced cyber-warfare capability. A few years back we found some Chinese trojan horses in our electrical grid which, if activated, could have knocked out all electricity to the western U.S. for a minimum of 6 months. We immediatly neutralized that threat, but who knows what other surprises China has in store for us?
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  2. #42

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    Sure, but having a powerful aggressor off the coast has a wonderful effect of public opinion and lawmakers. Regarding Chinese cyber warfare, the lights might go out but the guys who work the system would get them up pretty quick imo, no matter what the fear mongers say the regular guys on the job will get it done. Besides, we could turn their lights out too.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lemmy View Post
    I am
    None of this news reaches my little part of the world, and until this thread i hadn't realized how that region is a potential hotspot for future instability.
    Really old (and thus more reliable) background links. TED-ICE, BBC

  4. #44

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    This might explain a few things...


    http://ph.news.yahoo.com/philippines...132203293.html

    Philippines sees gas in China-claimed reef
    AFP NewsAFP News 9 hours ago

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    A Chinese surveillance ship is seen off Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines says it is hoping to help secure its energy future by developing a natural gas field in an area of the South China Sea also claimed by ChinaView Photo

    A Chinese surveillance ship is seen off Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.


    The Philippines said Tuesday it was hoping to help secure its energy future by developing a natural gas field in an area of the South China Sea also claimed by China.

    The comments come amid high tension with China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea and with Manila and Beijing locked in a standoff over the Scarborough Shoal.

    Energy Secretary Rene Almendras expressed optimism that Reed Bank, which lies about 148 kilometres (92 miles) from the Philippine island of Palawan, would yield massive amounts of natural gas.

    "Reading the statements (of higher reserves on the Reed Bank), I cannot help but smile and be happy because hopefully it's true, and its big resources will help us face the need for energy in the future," he told ABS-CBN television.

    He was referring to reports that Philippine-owned company, Forum Energy, had discovered possibly the country's biggest natural gas reserves there.

    Last year the Philippines accused Chinese vessels of harassing an exploration vessel off Reed Bank, and Manila has repeatedly accused China of aggressive actions in disputed waters.

    Manila and Beijing have been locked in a standoff over Scarborough, a group of islands in the South China Sea, since Chinese vessels blocked Philippine attempts to arrest eight Chinese fishing boats' crews earlier this month.

    Two Chinese patrol ships in the area were still facing off Tuesday against a Philippine coast guard vessel, about 230 kilometres west of the main Philippine island of Luzon, officials said.

    The Philippines has said both Reed Bank and Scarborough Shoal are well within its maritime territory but China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, disputes this.

    In a speech before Congress last year, Philippine President Benigno Aquino vowed to defend the country's claim to Reed Bank.

    Forum Energy is to update its estimate of the Reed Bank reserves later this week after processing new exploration data, its majority-owner Philex Petroleum Corp. disclosed in Manila.

    "This report is expected to show an improvement in the resources previously known," Philex told the Philippine Stock Exchange.

    Its previous estimate for Reed Bank was 96.28 trillion litres (3.4 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas.

    The prospect is located near Malampaya, the Philippines' largest currently known gas field, which is operated by Royal Dutch Shell.
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  5. #45
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    AFAIK, oil was discovered in the Spratly region in the late 60s. Suddenly in the 70s, everyone started to be more assertive in their claims.

  6. #46

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    Sure, but there are international laws that decide these things whether there is oil or not. Someone owns the area due to proximity (Philippines and others) and someone does not because they are comparatively far away. (China) So the Chinese are trying to steal it through bullying. What's to question, its obvious.
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    Part of the proximity problem is that each nation thinks they are in close proximity, since they claim they own at least some of the islands and therefore the surrounding waters.
    Were it not for the competing claims, the islands would be no less [insert nation here]'s than Heard Island is a part of Australia.
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  8. #48
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    Proximity is far from being the primary factory of determining sovereignty.

  9. #49
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    Recognition is the bulk of it in my opinion. The answer to who owns the region is therefore best answered by the question of who do most nations think owns the region?
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  10. #50

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    Well, here's the latest...


    http://ph.news.yahoo.com/beijing-war...130739539.html


    Beijing warns Manila on sea dispute
    AFP NewsAFP News 19 hours ago

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    Activists hold a protest in front of the Chinese Consular Office in Manila on April 16 demanding Beijing to immediately pull out from Scarborough Shoal. China has warned the Philippines not to "internationalise" the two countries' simmering territorial dispute in the South China Sea, as US and Philippine forces staged war games in the areaView Photo

    Activists hold a protest in front of the Chinese Consular Office in Manila on April


    China warned the Philippines on Wednesday not to "internationalise" the two countries' simmering territorial dispute in the South China Sea, as US and Philippine forces staged war games in the area.

    China has been locked in a maritime dispute with the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, a body of water considered a potential Asian flashpoint due to the overlapping claims of several nations.

    "Internationalising this issue will only complicate and magnify the situation," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told reporters in response to a question about the current situation in the dispute.

    "We do not wish to see the Philippines get other countries involved and get them to take sides over the issue."

    He spoke as US and Filipino soldiers staged an operation in which they stormed the Philippine island of Palawan in a war exercise not far from the real-life maritime standoff.

    For the past two weeks, Chinese patrol vessels have prevented the Philippines from arresting alleged poachers in the disputed waters around the Scarborough Shoal.

    A Philippine military official stressed the exercise was not a veiled threat against China, which has protested US moves to boost its military presence in the region.

    China claims all of the South China Sea as a historic part of its territory, even waters close to the coasts of the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries.

    The Philippines has complained over the past two years that China has become increasingly aggressive in staking its claim to the waters, with tensions spiking over the Scarborough Shoal standoff.
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  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by Da Xiongmao View Post
    Proximity is far from being the primary factory of determining sovereignty.
    Au contraire. International law sets up exclusion zones and resources zones based upon proximity. What is China's claim based upon--wishful thinking in Beijing?
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  12. #52

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    Might makes right. That's also why they want the US out of it of course. I hope the gov here has the smarts to ignore China on this.
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  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zkribbler View Post
    Au contraire. International law sets up exclusion zones and resources zones based upon proximity. What is China's claim based upon--wishful thinking in Beijing?
    Existing inhabitants and outright conquest supersede proximity. Discovery and terra nullis may also supersede it.

    Philippines' claim is based on proximity with terra nullis. The terra nullis part of their claim is somewhat questionable.
    China's claim is based on discovery with terra nullis, which is also questionable since they lost sovereignty over the Spratly's to (at least) France and Japan. Japan renounced their sovereignty at the end of WW2. ROC and PROC both reclaimed the region after that but didn't do much (anything?) with it.

    In any case, I'm not stating any opinion on who has a better/reasonable/not fraudulent claim. Merely that nations cannot willy-nilly claim areas based solely on proximity. (Incidentally, overlapping EEZ claims have to be worked out between the nations involved, if I understand correctly. Many countries have disputed EEZ areas).

  14. #54

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    There are two ways of resolving international disputes: by peaceful means or by war. The Philippines suggested taking the dispute to an international court and resolving the dispute using international law. As Lancer's post above, China rejected "internationalizing" the dispute, and instead has launched the attack described below. On its own, it doesn't seem like a big deal, but I fear it may be this century's equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.


    Hackers hit Philippines websites amid China dispute

    Philippine government websites are under heavy attack from hackers, apparently from China, amid a tense territorial dispute between the two countries in the South China Sea, officials said Thursday.

    While some Philippine hackers have reportedly launched retaliatory attacks, the government appealed to them for restraint, said Roy Espiritu, spokesman of the government's information technology office.

    "We've actually detected several attacks, including attempts at distributed denial of service," he said, in which a hacker infiltrates computers with which to attack a single target, such as a website, forcing it to shut down.

    "They (hackers) are probing into different (Philippine) government domains so we can't say how many attacks there are. But it is a lot," Espiritu told AFP.

    "The signatures (of the hackers) indicate they are from Chinese networks."

    Espiritu conceded this could be a ruse and the attacks may have actually originated from other sources.

    But he said all the attacks came after Philippine ships faced off with Chinese patrol vessels in April 8 in the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Before that, there had been no such attacks.

    The Chinese vessels initially prevented the Philippine Navy from arresting alleged Chinese poachers in the area. The stand-off is continuing.

    Budget Secretary Florencio Abad said his agency's website had again been defaced on Wednesday, just days after a similar hacking attack.

    Earlier, three of President Benigno Aquino's websites and a state university website were also attacked, supposedly by hackers from China.

    In at least one case, the hackers left a message asserting China's claim to the South China Sea.

    Espiritu said the technology office had implemented its own "firewall procedures" to fend off many of the attacks and was working with law-enforcement agencies to investigate them.

    He called for restraint from vengeful local hackers. "We would like to request them to be the bigger man and not escalate the situation."
    "I never learned from a man who agreed with me." ... Robert A Heinlein

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    Quote Originally Posted by Da Xiongmao View Post
    Existing inhabitants and outright conquest supersede proximity. Discovery and terra nullis may also supersede it.

    Philippines' claim is based on proximity with terra nullis. The terra nullis part of their claim is somewhat questionable.
    China's claim is based on discovery with terra nullis, which is also questionable since they lost sovereignty over the Spratly's to (at least) France and Japan. Japan renounced their sovereignty at the end of WW2. ROC and PROC both reclaimed the region after that but didn't do much (anything?) with it.

    In any case, I'm not stating any opinion on who has a better/reasonable/not fraudulent claim. Merely that nations cannot willy-nilly claim areas based solely on proximity. (Incidentally, overlapping EEZ claims have to be worked out between the nations involved, if I understand correctly. Many countries have disputed EEZ areas).
    Existing inhabitants introduces proximity.
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  16. #56

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    The closest inhabitants to my knowledge are on the Philippine Island of Palawan, million or more.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancer View Post
    Might makes right. That's also why they want the US out of it of course. I hope the gov here has the smarts to ignore China on this.
    We won't

    The mindless masses need a new evil empire, they are bored with the war on terror. China fits that role nicely.
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    So Con was right, no maybe about it!
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  18. #58

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    So you feel that this isn't serious, that its on par with play acting? People said the same thing about the cold war, but if your in a bunk on the border at a frosty 3 AM and the siren goes off you know just how serious it is. I rolled out of my bunk, threw on a uniform, grabbed my duffle and ran to the track park. My head cleared and I really woke up while we ammoed up the track, loaded up the mortar shells and 50 cal ammo, and headed for the border with East Germany. I thought it was a lousy start to a last day.

    People could die con, lots of people, any of us included. If its you will you do a good job acting dead?

    This stuff is serious.

    I don't think China will back down, and I know the US will support its allies. Right now there are Chinese ships in Philippine seas refusing to leave. I think this could very easily come to war.
    Last edited by Lancer; 28-04-12 at 12:01.
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  19. #59

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    I doubt it will come to war. China is well known for being rude, belligerent, and pushing right up to the point of war; but not actually pushing the little red button. Their peace at home is fragile, and they know it.

    However, I think war is probably the best outcome at this time. Honest. Ya, people will get killed, but it will actually allow the situation to be resolved instead of being a lingering wound for the next couple of decades. Best thing that could happen is that some Chinese captain gets trigger happy and shoots up a Philippians boat with at least some civilians, that is recorded and spread around the world. China has to either loose face and back down, or they have to move forward. And if that happens, you can guess what world opinion is going to look like.

    The US does NOT want war with China. China owns too much of our money and gives us too much of our junk (everything from auto parts and TV'd down to little rubber duckies) for us to want to stop that trade. The US will do anything it can to avoid that war, including saying "tough luck little group of islands way far away from our shores. You were good friends once, and we are still your friend, but we applaud your self determination and your right to be your own independent country". And at that point, all China has to do is NOT invade any of the main islands and they know it.

    It is a mess over there, and it is a hot button. But the dominoes are not even close to lined up for it to turn into a mess that would effect me, here, in Detroit.

  20. #60

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    Quote Originally Posted by godking View Post
    But the dominoes are not even close to lined up for it to turn into a mess that would effect me, here, in Detroit.
    Its true gk, a nuclear strike or two would hardly be noticeable in Detroit.




    Regarding wanting war to clear the air, so to speak, it certainly would. Doing it now instead of twenty years from now would likely have a better outcome for the US and world environment. That said, its a very dangerous thing. Two nuclear powers duking it out at sea, and one of them has to lose. If the US lost, not likely, the world would be truly screwed with an expansionist China taking whatever it wants wherever it could reach. If China lost the government would be overthrown. They might take it to the next level rather than admit defeat, and China is basically a despotism. Remember Germany in WW2. They fought to the last to protect the creatures in power, not for the good of the country. The government there is very used to getting what it wants, there is noone who can say no. Dealing with Tibet and India has shown them that they can do anything they choose to do. Think the Rhineland and Sudeten. So how spoiled brat childish are these people? How full of pride and machismo? Guess we're going to find out. Best result would be a peaceful regime change towards democracy over time with no war at all.
    Last edited by Lancer; 29-04-12 at 00:01.
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